Arsenal have not been good enough this season when it comes to a league title and yet, they may end the day having qualified for the final. As I sit here writing in the Luxembourg Gardens in Paris (ooh, fancy!), I was thinking about the issues that have seen Arsenal both reach a point where the league title flitted away but where in Europe they have found themselves not necessarily struggling as much for goals.

Granted, they must overturn a one-goal deficit after a 1-0 defeat to PSG in the first leg, but this was only the third European match of thirteen where they have failed to score. Across those 13 games they have managed 30 goals, an average of just over 2.3 goals per match.

In the Arsenal have scored 64 goals in 35 games, a record of just under 1.83 goals per match. To put it in perspective, if were scoring at the frequency in the league after 35 games that they are in Europe, they would be close to 81 goals.

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While still quite close enough to the 91 and 88 goal tallies of the previous two seasons, they would almost certainly still be in a title race now and turned many of the one-goal defeats or draws into additional points. But this is a lot of theory and conjecture.

The base point I am thinking about most is whether chance creation or finishing has been the bigger issue for the club when it comes to getting the goals. After 35 league games played last season, had 21 more goals.

In no uncertain terms that is a gulf, a chasm. When we look at shots per 90, Arsenal this season are averaging 14.11 per match compared to 17.03 per match last season.

Shots on target per match have dipped from 5.5 to 4.6. Shot-creating actions per 90 have dropped from 31.18 to 25.05.

For me, need to be more clinical. They also need to be more frequent in chance creation.

This is football, it is not a binary sport where you can only have one and not the other. Arsenal need to improve across the board if they want to be better.

The problem with the numbers is they’re an average, across a season. They give us a picture, but it’s sometimes like going to an art gallery, let’s say the Louvre for appropriateness, and looking at the Mona Lisa through a camera on which someone has smeared Vaseline on the lens.

You can make out the picture, you can see it’s the Mona Lisa, at least you think you do, but the picture lacks clarity, it lacks… context. The context behind the numbers are the injuries.

Arsenal’s most important goalscorers and goal creators have been absent and/or out of form for large portions of the campaign. Particularly , and .

All three were present for the record goalscoring season of the 2023/24 campaign, a season where Arsenal won more league matches and scored more league goals than the Invincibles side of 2003/04 and still didn’t win the league. And this is the context which for me unveils the answer.

Arsenal's finishing this season has only dipped slightly compared to last season despite losing their big creative players for huge chunks. In fact, in 2023/24, Arsenal outperformed their non-penalty expected goals (npxG) by 7.5, this season it was just 7.1.

Despite losing their biggest creators and the creation stats dropping, finishing has not necessarily changed. And this is where therefore the biggest opportunity for an upgrade comes in places like the transfer market.

Mikel Arteta’s point about timing in didn’t necessarily land with a broad audience and I can see why.

“We're going to try to do it this season,” he said when asked about being under pressure to win trophies. “Winning trophies is about being in the right moment in the right place.

“Liverpool have won the title with less points than we have in the last two seasons, but at the point of the last two seasons we have two Premier Leagues, so you have to be in the right moment in the right place. Hopefully here we are in the right moment in the right place in Paris tomorrow, to earn the right to be in that final.”

It rightly prompted a lot of “If my Grandmother had wheels she would have been a bike” responses. I get what Arteta is saying but, sadly it doesn’t land, every season is a new context and while we have lost big players, that does fall on the club to a degree with back-to-back transfer windows not being good enough.

On Wednesday night however, when it comes down to the clash with PSG, when you get to these moments in these grounds, chances are not afforded to you as often. It is in these times where how clinical you are can determine your fate.

In the summer Arsenal need to find the players who can level up their finishing. For me, they possess already some of the most creative players in Europe and while this too is an area where we can add even more, firepower is the key to unlocking the full potential of this Arsenal side.

Mikel Merino will be the man in charge of the cannon in Paris, we expect. His finishing has been impressive. Hopefully the club captain Odegaard can find his form at the perfect time to send the Gunners to Munich and with a chance of lifting their dream trophy.