Kerala: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon will likely reach Kerala on May 27 this year. The usual onset date is June 1. The early start may vary by four days either way. This marks another year of early monsoon after 2022 and 2024.

Above-Normal Rainfall Expected

According to IMD, rainfall for the June–September season is expected to be above normal, with more than 104 per cent of the long-period average (LPA). In 2024, India received 108 per cent of the LPA, totaling 934.8 mm of rain. The average LPA is 868.6 mm.

Boost to Agriculture and Economy

The monsoon is vital for India’s agriculture, especially for the Kharif season. A timely and strong monsoon helps farmers sow crops on time. This leads to better harvests and supports rural incomes. Agriculture is a key part of India’s economy and provides jobs to millions.

Past Performance and Forecast Accuracy

IMD has been forecasting monsoon onset dates since 2005. It has been accurate every year except in 2015. In the last five years, the monsoon reached early twice: May 29 in 2022 and May 30 in 2024. This year’s forecast is seen as reliable.

Relief from Heat and Strong Start to Season

The monsoon marks the end of India’s hot and dry summer. As it moves north, it brings cooler weather and rain. An early onset over Kerala is a sign that other regions may also receive timely rains. This is a positive sign for both people and the economy.