In New Delhi, India: According to a recent Jefferies research, India is the only major nation to forecast significant volume growth between 2019 and 2024, making it a promising steel market.

India’s steel output increased by a strong 33% over this time, despite a 1% decline in world steel production.

According to Jefferies, India presents a bright spot in the globe that is mostly free of commodity volume increases. The only major steel market to have significant volume increase in 2019–24 was India.

According to the research, India is one of the few nations in the world that is now seeing steady volume growth in key commodities including coal, aluminum, stainless steel, and carbon steel.

The nation’s consumption of carbon and stainless steel has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-8 percent during the last 15 years, which is around 1.1 to 1.3 times faster than the actual GDP growth during that time.

Jefferies projects an 8–10% volume CAGR for FY25–2027 and anticipates that India’s steel firms will continue to perform well. A 5% CAGR in coal volumes is also anticipated to be supported by the nation’s growing power demand.

Furthermore, the demand for aluminum in India grew at a consistent 7% CAGR from 2017 to 2024, and comparable demand growth is anticipated for all commodities from FY25 to FY27, with a range of 7-8% CAGR.

However, a decline in Chinese steel prices and a rise in steel imports into India in the second half of 2024 put pressure on prices in the local steel market. As a result, domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel prices fell by 15% between June and December 2024.

In response, the Indian government placed a safeguard levy of 12% on imports of flat steel in April 2025, which was in effect for 200 days. Between August and September of this year, a government agency is anticipated to conduct a final evaluation.

Steel prices have recovered after this action, increasing 14% year-to-date (CYTD) to Rs 53,500 per tonne. The cost of imported steel is currently 5% lower than this figure.

In FY26 and FY27, Jefferies predicts that Indian steel prices would average between Rs 52,000 and Rs 53,000, which is a little percentage—roughly 1-3 percent—below the current market price.

In an otherwise sluggish commodities market, India continues to drive global demand, thus the prognosis for Indian steel businesses is generally good.