Kolkata: Thrust forward by the tailwinds of economic momentum and market resilience, Indian stock markets will reach Himalayan heights in the next few years. By 2030, Sensex will scale the 1.5 lakh mark and by 2035 the index will reach the 3 lakh point, Motilal Oswal Financial Services boss Raamdeo Agrawal said in a recent interview.

“If you look at the last 45 years of history, the market has grown at a CAGR of 15%, which means double every five years… So now it is 80,000, I will say 1.5 lakh in five years. I am keeping 10,000 in my pocket (just to be safe). In 2030, it will be 1.5 lakh and in 2035, it will be 3 lakh,” said Agarwal according to The Economic Times. “When I bought my first stock in 1980, Sensex was at 100. And now it is at 80,000. So it is up 800 times at a CAGR of 16%. That’s the history,” he added.

Raamdeo Agrawal, ever the bull, has always come up with headline-gabbing forecasts about the BS 30 share index. In July 2024, he said in a television interview that Sensex would reach 1,60,000 points by 2029. Incidentally Sensex was around 80,093.45 points then. “Sensex has doubled every 5 years, target 1,60,000 for Sensex by 2029. Market can double in the next 5 years with a 15% CAGR, this is the happiest moment of my life,” Agarwal told the channel as he also advocated a separate minister for the capital markets.

Explaining why BSE Sensex will continue to harness a giant compounding power, Agarwal told the newspaper, “… the world is also moving up. See the world economy which was, lets say, $25 trillion in 1995, is about $115 trillion now. The world is growing at 5% and even gold will double in 15 years. The economy will grow to $250 trillion in 2040. In that incremental growth, we will get around $10 trillion in the next 25 years.”

Agarwal also came up with the example of Reliance Industries as a potent example of what he was trying to highlight. “Reliance was a Rs 20,000 crore company in 2003-04. Today, it is a Rs 20 lakh crore company. That’s compounding which allows you to see the future approximately. That’s 99%, but a lot can happen in that remaining 1%.” “Half the time, the future will be better than what you are thinking. Half the time, it will be worse. Your job is to figure out that you end up being on the right side most of the time,” was his advice to the investors.

Agarwal also named a few sectors that could be happy hunting ground for profits for investors. He named quick commerce, capital markets boom, energy transition and manufacturing sectors in this connection.

Underscoring the impact of the Indian investors in the market, the Motilal Oswal boss pointed out that since 2020 Indians have been pumping in funds in the equity markets. “We are getting whatever $50 to $100 billion flows continuously. So whatever you sell, there is support. It (Inflows) does not allow it (market) to go down too much.”

Even at a conservative estimate, the index will double by 20230, he said. “Overall the market will keep growing at that 15%. I still see the index doubling in the next five years.”

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