According to a recent analysis by the State Bank of India (SBI), India's poverty rate is anticipated to drop to 4.6% in 2024. This represents a notable improvement from the World Bank's 2023 estimate of 5.3%.

The SBI report states, "The poverty estimates from SBI and the World Bank align closely, with SBI projecting a decrease to 4.6% in 2024, down from the World Bank's 5.3% in 2023."

The findings indicate that India has made significant strides in poverty reduction, with the latest figures showing a further decline compared to the World Bank's assessment.

This reduction in poverty levels is largely attributed to enhanced data collection techniques and updated definitions. The recent Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) in India has implemented the Modified Mixed Recall Period (MMRP) method, replacing the previous Uniform Reference Period (URP).

The new approach employs shorter recall periods for frequently purchased items, resulting in a more precise representation of household consumption.

Consequently, national surveys have recorded increased consumption, which has contributed to a decrease in estimated poverty levels. For example, in 2011-12, the adoption of MMRP lowered India's poverty rate from 22.9% to 16.22% based on the older $2.15 per day poverty threshold.

In the 2022-23 survey, the poverty rate was recorded at 5.25% under the revised $3.00 per day poverty line, and even lower at 2.35% under the previous $2.15 threshold. The World Bank has recently updated the global poverty line from $2.15 per day (2017 PPP) to $3.00 per day (2021 PPP), which initially resulted in an increase of 226 million people classified as living in extreme poverty worldwide.

However, India has emerged as a positive statistical anomaly. Thanks to its revised consumption data and enhanced survey methodologies, India's updated statistics have actually contributed to a reduction of 125 million in the global poverty count.

The SBI report emphasizes that India's recent poverty ratio estimates are consistent with those of the World Bank, after accounting for methodological and definitional differences.

The ongoing decline in India's poverty rate underscores the effectiveness of its economic reforms, targeted welfare initiatives, and improved data collection systems.