Based on data from January to April 2025, ApplyBoard, a Canadian educational technology company, projects that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will approve 124,000 new study permits this year, down over 50% from 2024.

During the first four months of 2025, study permit applications for university bachelor’s programs fell 39% year-on-year to 12,458, while applications for university graduate programs dropped 32% to 12,026, the report cited, using data from the IRCC.

Canada’s introduction of study permit caps in 2024 resulted in a 45% decline in new student approvals to 280,000 compared to the previous year.

Across all study levels, the average approval rate for new study permits from January to April 2025 was approximately 33%, a 14 percentage point drop from the full-year 2024 rate of 47%.

This decline resulted in fewer than 31,000 new study permit approvals during the four-month period, representing a nearly 70% year-on-year decrease.

The figure, however, did not include study permit extensions, which account not only for students extending their current studies but also for those switching programs or study levels.

When extensions are included, total approvals approach the intended cap: around 503,000 new study permits and extensions were approved in 2024, compared to a cap of nearly 542,000.

The report reveals that study permit extensions are projected to make up 60% of the total international student volume this year, three times higher than the 20% share initially projected by the IRCC.

“The significant rise in study permit extensions outpaced our initial estimations,” an ApplyBoard spokesperson told The PIE Newsnoting the shift could “jeopardize” Canada’s reputation as a top study abroad destination.

ApplyBoard attributes part of the downturn to the government’s increase in required proof of funds, which has made it harder for students to qualify.

In a recent update, the IRCC announced that starting Sept. 1, 2025, international students applying for Canadian study permits (excluding Quebec) must show more than CA$22,895 (US$16,780) in available funds, an increase of nearly 11% from the previous requirement.

Since late 2023, Canada has introduced new measures for international students. In early December that year, IRCC announced that for study permit applications submitted on or after Jan. 1, 2024, single applicants must demonstrate CA$20,635 in available funds, double the earlier threshold of CA$10,000.

Beyond damaging Canada’s reputation in international education, the steep decline in new international students could result in talent shortages in critical industries, the report warned.

ApplyBoard also cautioned that educational institutions may face financial instability and reduced campus diversity, potentially forcing domestic students to bear higher tuition fees.

Domestic college enrolment in Canada has dropped by 5.7%, from 1,842,903 in 2013/2014 to 1,738,095 in 2022/2023, according to Statistics Canada, a government agency.

Experts warn that the falling number of international students will not be sufficient to offset this shortfall.

ApplyBoard echoed broader industry concerns, warning that these developments could undermine local economies and Canada’s innovation capacity, especially “at a time when AI is transforming the workforce and the role of post-secondary education is more critical than ever.”

While the Canadian government has pledged to reduce the number of temporary residents to 5% of the total population by 2027, critics argue that policymakers have seriously underestimated the consequences of these policies.

The country recorded almost no population growth in the first quarter of 2025, with declining international student numbers representing the biggest drop in temporary residents since the start of the pandemic.

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