Chennai: After a notably dry start to November, hopes for a revival of the Northeast Monsoon are rising, with private weather blogger Pradeep John, popularly known as the ‘Tamil Nadu Weatherman’, forecasting significant rainfall in the coming days. His prediction of rains arriving within the next five days has garnered widespread attention across the state.

The Northeast Monsoon, which began robustly in October with 33 percent excess rainfall, has nearly stalled since the beginning of November. With only 15 millimeters of rainfall recorded in the first ten days against a normal average of 181.7 mm for the entire month, this period is on track to be one of the worst in recent years. For context, November 2021 saw a high of 425.3 mm, while November 2024 recorded 140.2 mm, making the current deficit particularly stark.

“After a long lull, the coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai (KTCC), Delta districts, Puducherry, and Cuddalore will get the next active spell of rains between November 17 to 20. At least two solid rain days during this period. Nothing scary though. Until then, we’ll continue to see isolated spells and intermittent breaks in rainfall across the region. South TN will continue to get some rains in this period,” he said.

Next Good Spell from November 17 for KTCC and Coastal districts of Tamil Nadu

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After a long lull, the coastal Tamil Nadu including Chennai (KTCC), Delta districts, Puducherry, and Cuddalore will get the next active spell of rains between November 17 to… pic.twitter.com/ZCQh0WNmVW

— Tamil Nadu Weatherman (@praddy06)

In this context of dry weather, the forecast from Pradeep John brings much-needed optimism. He has indicated that the monsoon is expected to become active again, bringing good rainfall to several key regions.

According to his social media update, from November 17 to 20, there is a high chance of rain in:

• Northern districts including Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Chennai, and Chengalpattu.

• The Delta districts, Puducherry, and Cuddalore.

He predicts “good rain for at least two days” during this period, while also reassuring that no “very heavy rain to be feared” is expected. Until then, light rain is possible in one or two places across Tamil Nadu.

While the broader revival is a few days away, the Chennai Meteorological Department has issued a forecast for immediate rainfall in the southern part of the state. Due to a low-level circulation in the Arabian Sea, favourable conditions have developed.

Today, there is a possibility of heavy rain in the hilly areas of the Tirunelveli district, as well as in Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, and Kanyakumari districts. Following this, light to moderate rain can be expected in these regions until the 17th.

With the second half of November showing promising signs, all eyes are on the sky to see if the monsoon can compensate for its weak start and reach the necessary rainfall totals for the month.